Uk Election 2024 Exit Polls

UK General Election 2024: Exit Poll to be Released at 10pm

What the Polls Tell Us

There has been a small but noticeable narrowing in the polls, writes senior political correspondent Benedict Spence. The Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, has seen its lead over the Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, shrink in recent weeks. The latest poll by YouGov, conducted on July 1-2, gives the Conservatives a four-point lead over Labour, 37% to 33%. This is down from a seven-point lead in the same poll two weeks earlier. Other polls have shown similar trends, with the Conservatives' lead narrowing in all of them.

Exit Poll Track Record

In the past five British general elections, the exit poll has predicted how many of the 650 or more parliamentary seats would be claimed. In 2019, the exit poll correctly predicted that the Conservatives would win a majority of seats, although it underestimated their margin of victory. In 2017, the exit poll correctly predicted that there would be a hung parliament, with no party winning a majority of seats. The exit poll is conducted by a consortium of broadcasters, including the BBC, ITV, and Sky News. It is based on a sample of around 15,000 voters who are interviewed as they leave polling stations on election day.

Significance of the Exit Poll

The exit poll is closely watched by politicians, journalists, and the public as it provides an early indication of the likely outcome of the election. However, it is important to note that the exit poll is not a perfect predictor of the final result. In 2015, the exit poll predicted that Labour would win the most seats, but the Conservatives actually won the most seats and formed a government. The exit poll is just one piece of information that voters should consider when making their decision on election day.